Black Friday–Cyber Monday 2025: The Thrill Is Still There, but Wallets Are Tighter
There’s a strange duality running through this year’s holiday shopping season. On one hand, the energy is unmistakably building — more people say they plan to join the Black Friday–Cyber Monday hunt than last year, and you can feel that familiar mix of excitement, urgency, and “maybe I’ll regret this later” shopping logic simmering again. But the numbers tell a different story: shoppers are participating, yet spending less. Deloitte’s latest survey lands at an interesting crossroads where enthusiasm meets hesitation, and the result feels like a slightly deflated version of a holiday tradition people still love — just… more cautiously.
The headline number is simple but telling: the average shopper expects to spend $622 during the Thursday-to-Monday shopping window. That’s down 4% year over year — the first drop after four straight years of rising spend. The pressures behind it aren’t abstract: 69% blame the cost of living, and nearly half see fewer discounts or higher prices on holiday items. The age split adds texture. Gen Z and millennials are holding steady, as if their spending muscle memory overrules caution, while Gen X and Boomers are noticeably retreating — down 9% and 12%, respectively. Even high-income households aren’t immune: those earning $200K+ plan to spend 18% less, which honestly says everything about the inflation mood right now.
But despite this pullback, 82% of consumers still plan to shop BFCM, up from last year. And Gen Z? They’re basically treating it like a sport: 92% plan to participate, and an eye-catching 72% are going physically in-store on Black Friday — way above the population average of 49%. There’s something almost nostalgic about that detail. The chaos, the crowds, the irrational competition for a limited pile of discounted AirPods — apparently Gen Z wants the experience as much as the purchase.
Financing, unsurprisingly, remains a core part of how shoppers plan to stretch what they have. Nearly two-thirds will lean on credit cards or BNPL, and those who do typically spend 12% more than the average shopper. In a way, financing has become part of the modern BFCM tradition — like doorbusters, discount countdown timers, and the annual “We swear these deals are REAL markdowns” marketing rhetoric.
The shift to hybrid shopping continues to shape the landscape. About 60% plan to shop online, 40% in-store, with motivations split exactly how you’d expect: convenience and avoiding crowds vs. snagging in-person “must-be-there” deals. Online-only retailers remain king — 68% of shoppers plan to buy from them — but the in-store experience isn’t fading the way pandemic-era predictions once assumed.
And what’s actually ending up in carts? Pretty predictable:
Clothes, electronics, toys, and gift cards — the timeless BFCM core categories. But a fun sidenote: a surprising share of early fall sales went toward practical necessities, not gifts. That says a lot about where priorities are landing this year.
Underneath all of this is a single theme Deloitte repeats gently but consistently: value, not volume, is driving the season. Shoppers aren’t opting out — they’re just becoming more strategic, even tactical. Many are already building “digital carts of intention” and waiting to pull the trigger only if the discounts hit their psychological floor. For 38%, that floor is 50% off or more. If the deal doesn’t reach that magic threshold, retailers may hear the quiet sound of an item being removed… and then forgotten.
It’s still a big retail moment. Still a cultural ritual. Still chaotic in the best and worst ways. But the economic mood has changed, and it shows — not in how many people show up, but in how carefully they spend once they do.
Maybe that’s just where the world is right now: still excited, still participating, but a lot more deliberate. After all, stretching a holiday budget takes more skill than snagging the first flashy discount — and this year, more shoppers seem ready to play the long game of patience, comparison, and timing.
Retailers, take note: frictionless experiences, real pricing, and trust-based incentives matter more now than hype. And shoppers? They’re bringing calculators — digital or otherwise.
Somehow, the season feels just as loud — but smarter.